Next Season

Not to start off on a negative note, but it is absolutely impossible for the Leafs to make the playoffs this year. This is not a startling announcement - in fact, many people were boldly making this claim before the season even started.

Accurately, as it turns out, which is not so much an example of their psychic ability as it is an accurate assessment of the team's capabilities. Also, there might be a bit of the bizarre hatred that the Maple Leafs seem to consistently inspire in fans of other teams.

However, discussing that hatred is not the topic of this post - no, this post is inspired by a recent column by Damien Cox. In it, he raises a fair point:

Based on the quality of teams that will make the Stanley Cup playoffs out of the Eastern Conference, the Leafs will have only to improve from lousy to mediocre next season to find themselves in the thick of the hunt.

The Eastern Conference is weaker than the West - one only has to look at the standings to prove that. How much of an improvement would the Leafs have to make for next season to have a happier ending?

Well, it's not much. Let's look at the standings as they currently are in the Eastern Conference.

Image borrowed from nhl.com.

Ugh. That's unpleasant.

Anyway, the important part is as follows: even with the dismal season that the Leafs have had, they are still only six wins out of a playoff spot. Well, eleven points, but that's not exactly a huge difference.

Let's say the Leafs had somehow managed to get those six wins. Doesn't matter whom against. Suddenly, they're up there in the middle of the pack, and their record is still at... well, let's give them Boston's record (slightly modified) at 34W-29L-13OT, for a grand total of eighty-one points.

Hey, look! The Leafs are in eighth place in the conference.  Depending on where you decide to arbitrarily apply wins in the season, you could even move them up to sixth if you decide Montreal and Philadelphia had particularly poor luck against Toronto this season.

The point here is that - assuming the East doesn't drastically improve over the offseason, and odds are it won't to the drastic degree required to throw off all the numbers - Toronto really doesn't need to do that much better. Hell, even if they had basically average play over the rough months this year they'd be in much better standing.

Check this out:

Behold. The record of the Maple Leafs during the months of October and January - by far the worst two of the season, although November wasn't much better.

In October, the team went (1-7-4), while in January they went (3-10-2), for a combined total of 14 points out of a possible 54. They only won four games out of twenty seven. Just having average results from those two months (for 27 points out of 54) would give them the eleven points they need for playoff position and an extra three for insurance.

The Leafs were atrocious in the first two thirds of the season. Even December, their best month, only had 8 wins out of 16 games. To do well in the East, an average performance is more than enough.

Hopefully, though, the Leafs will do a little better than that.