Profile: Phil Kessel

(Photo by Graig Abel/NHLI via Getty Images)

The trade for Phil Kessel will be one that will be long discussed by Toronto and Boston fans, as it has without a doubt changed the fortunes of these two franchises substantially. While debate rages on whether or not the trade was worth it, especially considering Toronto's likely place in the standings by the end of the season, there remains one central fact: 

That debate will not affect the trade. It cannot be undone.

So, with that in mind, we'll look forward and take a look at the concrete facts of the matter.

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Phil Kessel is the current leader in points for the Toronto Maple Leafs. He leads in goals, shots taken (with 268, or 4.46... shots a game), and points per game (with 0.86); he's also second in assists, with only Tomas Kaberle ahead of him in that department. He's done all this, and he didn't even start playing until the 3rd of November.

While he without a doubt the most skilled offensive player on the Leafs, and one of the few to be a genuine threat to score whenever he's on the ice, he does have his flaws. He's not the strongest player, and the ease with which he skates may look like laziness to some, and most problematic at all is his difficulties on the defensive end of the ice.

However, when considering Kessel (and several other players on the Maple Leafs), it's important to keep in mind that he is only 22 years old. The prime of a hockey player in the NHL is generally agreed to be in the mid to late 20s. What does this mean to you?

What it means, and what I find most exciting of all, is that Kessel is only at the beginning in his career; the best from him is yet to come. 

Pure Sniper

Now, I'm a fan of Kessel, and I'm glad the Leafs have him. He's capable of scoring some truly excellent goals, he can also set up goals, and his snap shot is particularly impressive.

I will admit that for the amount of cap hit that Kessel takes in, you might have some high expectations as to what kind of production he's obligated to provide. At the moment, he's 9 points off a point per game pace, and he's merely tied for 18th in goals across the entire league. That puts him ahead of such nobodies like Malkin, Datsyuk, Kane, Toews, and St. Louis, and tied with luminaries like Henrik Sedin and Richards.

Granted, all of the aforementioned players have more points than Kessel, but all of them have also played more games, and nearly all of them are older than him (with the exception of Toews and Kane). Also, all of those players have higher cap hits, with the exception of St. Louis. 

St. Louis, by the way, is excellent value for money. Just an aside.

A Small Experiment

Now, Kessel can be streaky at times. Right now he's scored goals in five of his last six games, but in the stretch of six games previous to that, he only scored one. Why am I bringing this up?

Because during a stretch of eleven games from December 18th to January 8th, Kessel only managed to score a single goal. That's it. One point. This is despite taking 53 shots, and potentially getting a bunch of assists from however many plays he contributed to. That's some pretty bad luck.

It is convenient, though, that he had such a clearly defined streak of bad luck. On either side of it is fairly typical play - one point games all over the place, the occasional two- or three-point game, and so forth. 

What this allows us to do is remove that one particular bad stretch - as anyone can have bad luck - and see what happens to Kessel's stats.

Now, I'm well aware that this is a silly comparison - if I decided to take out all the games where Kessel didn't score, he magically becomes a player who has scored points in every single game of the year! Amazing! Give him the Hart!

I'm not arguing that Kessel will never have another bad streak - he does tend to have periods of several games where he doesn't get any points, and perhaps as he ages he'll grow to be a more consistent point-getter. At the moment, though, he's providing plenty of points, and I'm excited to see how his season is going to end up.

After all, as you may have noticed from my previous post, I'm quite a fan of the current top line of the Leafs. I'm really looking forward to see how they do for the last ten games of the season.

The Trade

It has been discussed to death. You can whinge on and on about whether or not you think it was a good idea or not. It has been done, it can't be undone, and until those draft picks (regardless of where they end up in the lottery or not) actually turn into productive NHL players, Toronto has won this trade. 

As Kessel only promises to get better with age, it'll likely be a couple of years before Boston's draft pick begins to provide any serious production, and Boston has become the absolute worst offensive team in the NHL with the loss of Kessel (not to say they haven't had other problems), I feel comfortable in that conclusion.

Also, consider that this means that Toronto has benefited from the trade immediately (despite what you may believe from their place in the standings) while Boston has grown markedly worse in the hope of being better years later... maybe.

Whether you think the risk was worth it - for either team - is poisoned by hindsight on this rather underwhelming season, so try to keep that in mind. I believe the trade was worth it, rather than spending an entire season gunning for failure. You may not agree with my perspective.

You have that right.

Assuming that Toronto's young players - who are already in the league and seemingly able to compete at this point at the NHL level, albeit with the occasional error due to inexperience - continue to improve with time over the course of the next season, it'll be interesting to see just which team is in better shape by the end of the next couple of seasons.