Looking Less Likely

Lovely as all the fantasizing may be about the Leafs getting out of the bottom two places in the league, the odds of it happening are getting awfully low. Yes, Toronto is only one win away from tying Tampa, but even if they manage that, they'll still be in the same place in the standings (based on overall wins by the end of the year). So they need to take the lead, which means they need to win at least two of the next three games, and for either Tampa Bay or Florida to lose every single last game for the rest of the year. And looking at their schedules, it's literally impossible for both of those teams to lose every last game.

Florida
Tue, Apr 06 Ott 7:30 PM ET
Thur, Apr 08 NJ 7:30 PM ET
Sat, Apr 10 @ TB 7:30 PM ET
Sun, Apr 11 TB 5:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay
Tue, Apr 06 Car 7:30 PM ET
Thur, Apr 08 Ott 7:30 PM ET
Sat, Apr 10 Fla 7:30 PM ET
Sun, Apr 11 @ Fla 5:00 PM ET

The end result of all this is that for the best possible result for the Leafs at this point can only be achieved if the Leafs win all three remaining games - two of which are against teams struggling for playoff spots. In that scenario, Tampa Bay and Florida also have to lose the next two games each before splitting their final two against each other with regulation wins. That is, if you want the Leafs to get in front of both of those teams - I suppose if you want you could cheer for one team to lose both games, which would make it easier to move up that critical one spot.

As for other teams within theoretical reach, there is Columbus and Carolina. Columbus has two games left, and if the Leafs win all three of their games and Columbus loses both of theirs, Toronto will overtake them based on the outcome of the one game the two teams played this year (A 6-3 Toronto win, on December 3rd). I believe, as they would have matching final records if this scenario plays out. Correct me if I'm wrong. Carolina cannot be beat if they win one of their remaining three games - they would beat us in the standings based on amount of wins. Seeing as we're hoping that Carolina wins tonight, that win would ironically put them out of reach for our purposes. Such is life.

Carolina
Tue, Apr 06 @ TB 7:30 PM ET
Thur, Apr 08 Mtl 7:00 PM ET
Sat, Apr 10 @ Bos 1:00 PM ET

Columbus
Wed, Apr 07 @ Det 7:30 PM ET
Fri, Apr 09 Det 7:00 PM ET

If, somehow, the Leafs end up tied with Tampa or Florida in points and they both have the same amount of wins somehow, the Leafs would beat Tampa based on points earned in games, while Florida would beat Toronto based on goal differential. Unless, of course, the Leafs manage to score at least eighteen goals in the next three games... while allowing none.

As a result, without going into the possible permutations of the last few games for each of these teams, the best possible outcome for the Leafs is 26th, in front of Columbus, Florida, Tampa Bay, and Edmonton. It's going to be a lottery pick regardless, but hey, they say it's a weak draft year. And there's always the possibility of the Leafs "winning" the lottery and picking first regardless.

We can relax, though! For after looking at the schedules closely, we can now see that the fate of our former draft pick basically rests in the hands of the Ottawa Senators. Now, isn't that nice.